December 2012

In the recent years, both the scientific community and general public are hyped by a theory that the world is going to end on December 21,  2012. TV series such as History Channel's "Dooms Day 2012: Decoding the Past" have created unprecedented sensation in the community. Hollywood left no chance to cash as there are already several movies which portray this story.

The predictions speculate that on December 21, 2012, today's world will come to an end. Some predict that the earth will be wiped out by a natural disaster like a giant tidal wave, an Earth-wide earthquake or a tremendous volcanic eruption. Others believe that the Earth will collide with some yet unknown planet causing polar shifts, gravitational reversals or a black hole so big that our solar system will simply disappear. 

Most of these predictions base their argument on the end of Mayan Long Count Calendar on December 21, 2012. Let's see what Mayan Calendar says.

Mayans?? 

The Maya was one of the Mesoamerican civilizations, which archaeologists believe to have existed during 2500 BC to about 900 AD. Archaeological evidences show that Mayan influence extended from present day Honduras, Guatemala, Northern El Salvador and to as far as central Mexico. (Further Reading)

Based on a study by Dr. Richard Hansen, the Mayan population reached an all-time high after a two millennia of steady growth. At the peak of their prosperity, the population density ranged from 400 to 600 people per square mile in the rural areas, and from 1,800 to 2,600 people per square mile near the center of the Mayan Empire (in what is  now El Petén Guatemala). In comparison, Los Angeles County averaged 2,345 people per square mile in 2000. A study by Thomas Sever shows that by 950 A.D., as many as 90 to 95 percent of the Maya died. 

There are several theories on such a sudden disappearance of the Mayan Civilization. Some believe that the excessive population growth led to food scarcity worsen by a 200 year long drought in the area imposing famine which ultimately led to their disappearance. Some believe that war was the cause, some say Spanish invaders killed all the Mayans. There is another group of people who believe that the Mayans were nurtured by some advanced extra terrestrial civilization who returned home after they were done with whatever purpose they were here for. More recent archaeological finding however depict that the Mayan races still exist in the South American continent. Besides varying theories about Mayan disappearance, everyone believes that they had extremely rich culture, highly sophisticated science, math, astrology and technological advancement for the era they existed.

Mayans Calendar 

One of the ancient Mayan's greatest accomplishments is their calendar which has raised the eyebrows of present days scholars because of its remarkable accuracy and complexity. Based on how Mayan inscriptions depict date in each of their important writings, they seem to be obsessed with time.

Archeologists claim that the Maya calendar uses three different dating systems in parallel, the Long Count, the Tzolkin (divine calendar), and the Haab (civil calendar). The most astonishing fact to me is the accuracy of the Mayan Calendar. It is believed that Tzolk'in Calendar show a year of 260 days. This calendar was primarily used for their religious rituals. Haab calendar was used for everyday and agricultural purposes which show a year of 365 days and has a direct relationship to the length of year in our calendar. The Long Count Calendar was used to show longer time periods. The beginning and end of Long Count Calendars are assumed to the beginning and end of an era. In other words, Long Count Days represent the number of days that have passed since the beginning of Mayan era.

The Maya astronomers somehow knew the exact orbital data of the Earth-with inexplicable precision. They had measured the exact length of our year to exactly 365.242129 days. That number is more precise than our own calendar:

The Julian calendar = 365.250000 days

The Gregorian calendar = 365.242500 days

The Mayan calendar = 365.242129 days

Absolute astronomical calculation = 365.242189 days

Amazing huh!!! this is what makes me believe their calculations.

A typical Mayan date looks like this: 12.18.16.2.6, 3 Cimi 4 Zotz.

12.18.16.2.6 is the Long Count Date

3 Cimi is teh Tzolkin Date

4 Zotz is the Haab Date

Long Count Calendar?

As we already discussed, the Tzolk'in year has a week with 13 days and a year with 20 weeks (260 days). The Haab year has 365 days year. If both of these calendars were to start on the same day, it will take 18980 days for both calendars to come to the same starting position. This is often termed by the scholars as a "Calendar Round". So, One calendar round is equivalent to 73 Tzolk'in years or 52 Haab years. To represent events longer than these, Mayans used Long Count Calendar.

The first date in the Long Count is written as 13.0.0.0.0.

Why December 21, 2012?

There are several arguments between various researchers and authorities on what 13.0.0.0.0 corresponds to in our calendar. In general the researchers look for correlation in historical, astronomical, and archaeological evidences described in Mayan inscriptions with the Gregorian dates. Among several such correlations, GMT correlation seems to be the most accepted which shows that:

13.0.0.0.0 = 6 Sep 3114 BC (Julian) = 11 Aug 3114 BC (Gregorian)

With this starting date and the fact that 1 b'ak'tun (1.0.0.0.0) is equivalent to 144000 days,  the Long Count will again reach 13.0.0.0.0 on 21 December 2012 AD- a not too distant future.

Correlation between Long Count and Gregorian Calendar (Source Wikipedia)

Long Count	Gregorian dateGMT (584283) correlation
13.0.0.0.0	August 11, 3114 BCE
1.0.0.0.0	November 13, 2720 BCE
2.0.0.0.0	February 16, 2325 BCE
3.0.0.0.0	May 21, 1931 BCE
4.0.0.0.0	August 23, 1537 BCE
5.0.0.0.0	November 26, 1143 BCE
6.0.0.0.0	February 28, 748 BCE
7.0.0.0.0	June 3, 354 BCE
8.0.0.0.0	September 5, 41 CE
9.0.0.0.0	December 9, 435
10.0.0.0.0	March 13, 830
11.0.0.0.0	June 15, 1224
12.0.0.0.0	September 18, 1618
13.0.0.0.0	December 21, 2012
14.0.0.0.0	March 26, 2407
15.0.0.0.0	June 28, 2801
16.0.0.0.0	October 1, 3195
17.0.0.0.0	January 3, 3590
18.0.0.0.0	April 7, 3984
19.0.0.0.0	July 11, 4378
1.0.0.0.0.0	October 13, 4772

Table 1: Note that Long Count is a mixed base-20 and base-18 numeral system. So, the numbers end at 19 before starting over

What does this mean to us?

Well!! Mayans haven't explicitly said anything about what is going to happen when their long count resets to 13.0.0.0.0. They say that the first day of the Long count calendar represents the day when world as we know today was created (?). Now people are  (mis)interpreting that the end of calendar means the end of the world. May be that is true or may be wrong. As we already saw the debate between scholars on when does the starting day (13.0.0.0.0) correlate to our Gregorian date.

Ancient Alien theorists believe that the Mayan Civilization was highly blessed and nurtured by some advanced Extra-Terrestrial race. If that is the case, may be they started the calendar on the day they (the ETs) descended on earth and end of this era is their pre-scheduled visit back to earth. Who knows!

Personally, I am not convinced that anything is going to happen. Given their advanced knowledge of astronomy and time, if there was any prophecy in Mayan literatures about what is going to happen at the end of their calendar, I would have believed it. But, it is not that far, hopefully I can come back and rewrite this post!!!! We'll see.

What else is known about December 21, 2012 other than what Mayan Calendar says? 

As we have seen from all the literatures, part of the 2012 mystique stems from the stars. The winter solstice for 2012 is coincidently on Dec 21, 2012 11:12 (in the Northern Hemisphere). This year on winter solstice, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years. This means that whatever energy typically streams to Earth from the center of the Milky Way Galaxy will indeed be disrupted on 12/21/12 at 11:12.

May be this was the Mayan Calendar meant.